Numbers say pitch to Bonds

Published June 3 2004
David Teel


Pitch to the man, why don't ya? Pitch to Barry Bonds. Let him swing the
bat and deposit baseballs into McCovey Cove and points beyond.

Alas, the killjoys and cowards posing as National League managers insist
on denying us what we want to see and what millions pay to see. Bonds is
up? Throw four wide and watch him trot to first base.

Never mind that Bonds' swing, steroid suspicions aside, is the most
compelling sight in all of sports - better than Tiger on the tee, LeBron
in mid-flight or Vick escaping the pocket. Never mind that intentionally
walking Bonds torques off fans and fuels the stereotype of egomaniacal
coaches micromanaging the world's best athletes.

Bonds is up? Heaven forbid that he might bring a crowd to its feet with
a tape-measure home run, laser in the gap, or even a strikeout. Perish
the thought that pitching staffs might be exposed and mocked.

Bonds is up? Four wide.

It's an epidemic, you know. Entering play Wednesday, Bonds, the San
Francisco Giants' left fielder, had drawn 37 intentional passes this
season, putting him on pace for 118, nearly double the record of 68 he
set in 2002.

More insane IBB (intentional bases on balls) factoids in a moment, but
first, this breaking news: A stat freak working as a professor at Duke
says walking Bonds is often a mistake.

Jerry Reiter teaches at Duke's, deep breath here, Institute of
Statistics and Decision Sciences. And he charted the number of runs the
Giants scored after each of Bonds' plate appearances from 2001-03.

Here, as reported in the Baseball Research Journal and e-mailed to
reporters this week, are Reiter's conclusions:

"When Bonds walks with the bases empty and no outs - roughly 80 plate
appearances over three years - the Giants score at least one run 46
percent of the time and average about 0.9 runs per inning. When he hits
in these situations - roughly 300 at-bats over the three years - the
Giants score at least one run 36 percent of the time and average about
0.6 runs per inning.

"These differences suggest that avoiding Bonds' home run power is
outweighed by beginning an inning with a free pass. Pitching to Bonds is
more effective than walking him in this situation."

Moreover, "with at least one runner on base, pitching to Bonds still
seems to be the better strategy no matter how many outs there are."

Walking Bonds, according to Reiter, makes statistical sense "only when
there is no one on base and at least one out."

Not that managers will listen. Like their coaching brethren in other
sports, they are control freaks bent on dictating every facial tic of
even their most talented players.

Football coaches call every play and defensive alignment. Basketball
coaches hoard timeouts, lest they be unable to X and O every possession
in the last five minutes.

Earth to coaches/managers: Do you want your owner and/or general manager
diagramming strategy on the bench/in the dugout? Then shut your yap and
let the players play.

Granted, Bonds, the greatest hitter of his generation, is a unique case.
Hang a curve or groove a splitter and face the consequences. Bonds owns
the single-season home run record with 73, and with 672 in his career,
he's a decent bet to break Hank Aaron's record of 755.

This he's accomplished despite losing the equivalent of a full season to
intentional walks. Bonds received his 521st career IBB on Tuesday and
hasn't reached 500 at-bats in a season since 1998.

Baseball didn't record intentional walks until 1955, so stats are
unavailable for greats such as Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx and Ted Williams.
But comparing Bonds to the likes of Aaron, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson
and Roberto Clemente show how far off the charts he is.

Aaron is second in career intentional passes with 283 and never exceeded
23 in a season. Bonds figures to double Aaron's career total by season's
end. Double! Records are made to be broken, not doubled.

Mays never drew more than 20 IBB in a season and finished with 192.
Robinson checks in at 218, Clemente 167. Bonds has received one fewer
free pass in the last two-plus seasons (166) than Clemente did in an
18-year career.

Before Bonds' recent binge, Willie McCovey (yes, the namesake of the
cove outside the Giants' stadium) owned the single-season record with 45
in 1969. But his career total, 260, is half of Bonds'.

"It is understandable why managers fear pitching to him," Reiter wrote
of Bonds. "However, the data ... suggest that there is little difference
in opposing teams' ability to prevent runs when walking Bonds versus
when letting him hit. Personally, I'm rooting for managers to pitch to
Bonds ..."

Don't hold your breath.