Department of Statistical Science
Duke University
presents:
Sakari Kuikka
Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute
"Learning Bayesian Decision Analysis by Doing: Lessons from Environmental and Natural Resources Management"
Abstract: The planet we are living is getting small; each decade the number of us here grows by almost one billion. Our concern is the escalating pressure the mankind puts on natural resources and the environment. There is pressing need to develop management schemes and approaches that acknowledge the pragmatic character of the problems: we scientist should not just passively observe and measure but also need to assist policy makers for better action. The methodological literature in decision and risk analysis is blooming and rich. However, the way to applications tends to be long. It is not enough that one has learned and applied methodology; it has also to be comprehended and accepted by many others who often are not all that devoted to methodological challenges; and launched to responsible institutions. The importance of the problems to be solved yet should keep the motivation high. In this paper, we make an overview of lessons learned from studying, applying, and launching of Bayesian decision analysis - influence diagrams and belief networks in particular - in the field of resource and environmental management. A number of case studies from water resources and fisheries are used as an illustration.
November 8, 1996
10:30 am - 11:30 am
136 Social Sciences Building Any questions concerning the seminar may be addressed to Cheryl McGhee @ [919] 684-8029 or e-mail cheryl@stat.duke.edu